So GNER is to ask the Department for Transport to reduce its premium payments for the next few years (see here). Competitors are not surprisingly less than impressed. But maybe those doing well are the recipients of not a little luck. Bidding for these franchises is akin to guessing the difference between two very large numbers. But worse, each of these large numbers depends on events that are not predictable (like terrorist attacks) several years into the future. Like all gambles you might win big or you might lose your shirt. Maybe there are better models for running the railways than a casino.